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NAS:NFLX, Oct 16, 08:37 UTC

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Netflix (NFLX) Stock Sinks 1.9% Ahead of Q3 Earnings: What to Watch

NFLX

Netflix (NFLX) Stock Sinks 1.9% Ahead of Q3 Earnings: What to Watch. Shares of Netflix NFLX dipped 1.9% during regular trading hours Monday just one day before the streaming TV giant’s third-quarter earnings release. The company expects to add 650,000 subscribers in the U.S. and 4.35 million internationally in the third quarter to help it reach 135.14 million subscribers worldwide. And our Non-Financial Metrics are calling for Netflix to add 669,450 U.S. subscribers and 4.40 million international members. Moving on, Netflix is expected to see its adjusted quarterly earnings soar 134.5% to reach $0.68 per share. However, we still need to know if NFLX has a chance to top our quarterly earnings estimate.

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Netflix Stock Could Tumble on Q3 Report: Technician

NFLX

Shares of on-demand streaming giant Netflix Inc. ( NFLX) were among the hardest hit by last week's sell-off, which sent a shock wave across the global markets and disproportionately weighed on U.S. tech titans. While Netflix stock is still up a whopping 76.9% year-to-date (YTD), outperforming the S&P 500's 3.5% gain and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index's 8.6% increase over the same period, it has fallen 20% from highs reached in July before posting second-quarter results. Now, Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, indicates that key technical developments in Netflix's chart make him more cautious on the once-red-hot FAANG stock.

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It's time for Netflix to prove it's still the king - KPAX.com

NFLX DIS

Now the streaming juggernaut has a chance to show that its most recent results might have just been a blip. The company is huge — Netflix had about about 130 million total subscribers when it last reported results, dwarfing competitors such as Hulu, which said it had around 20 million subscribers this spring. (WarnerMedia, the parent company of CNN, owns 10% of Hulu.). And while the most recent numbers — Netflix added 5.2 million subscribers overall — would have looked very impressive to just about any other media company trying to build a streaming service, it wasn’t enough for investors who demand a dominant performance from the leader of the pack. That deal also will give Disney a majority stake in Hulu, further increasing the company’s influence in streaming. If Netflix wants to fight off those competitors, it will likely need to spend a lot of money on creating more of its own original programming. And it’s already building that library — earlier this year, Chief Financial Officer David Wells said the company expects to have about 700 programs available for customers by the end of this year.

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Netflix is vulnerable to another sell-off after earnings, top technical analyst warns

NFLX

Netflix is vulnerable to another sell-off after earnings, top technical analyst warns. Its shares traded more than 1 percent lower on Monday, adding to the 15 percent drop over the past three months. The stock is susceptible to another bout of volatility, which could mean even more weakness ahead, Carter Worth, head of technical analysis at Cornerstone Macro, said on CNBC's " Options Action " on Friday. "The question is, is this just a very volatile stock — of course, it is — but is it out of the woods on this next earnings print?" Since May 2016, Netflix shares have endured nine double-digit pullbacks.

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The Netflix Bulls Are Pulling Back Just a Bit as Earnings Approach

NFLX

As the next set of quarterly results from Netflix approaches, the stock lost ground Monday amid scaled-back price targets from some analysts.

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Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: A Subscriber Numbers Story

NFLX

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares tumbled following its second-quarter earnings report in July, and with third-quarter results scheduled to be released Tuesday, investors are highly anticipating the print, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Paul Sweeney. Netflix's earnings reports are always high-profile given the stock's strong gains over the years, Sweeney said on Bloomberg TV Friday. Current expectations call for negative free cash flow of $3 billion in 2018, but the Netflix can continue operating in this manner as long as it grows its subscriber base in Q3 and beyond, he said. Netflix is expected to show a total net subscriber addition of 5.55 million users, with 0.85 million of those originating from the U.S. and the remaining 4.7 million from international markets, Goldman Sachs' Heath Terry said in a Friday note.

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Goldman Sachs cuts Netflix ahead of its earnings report (NFLX)

NFLX GS

Goldman Sachs cuts Netflix ahead of its earnings report (NFLX). Goldman Sachs on Monday cut its price target for the streaming stock to $430 from $470 — still a 26% upside to Monday's prices — citing an anticipated cut to 4th quarter guidance when Netflix reports third-quarter earnings on Tuesday. "While 3rd party data has most investors anticipating net subscriber additions beyond management’s July guidance, we believe that has been balanced by expectations for more conservative 4Q guidance," analyst Heath Terry, who remains above Wall Street's average price target and maintains a buy rating, said in a note to clients. The price target cut also "reflects the contraction in broader internet multiples," according to Goldman Sachs, which now factors in a 60x forward earnings-to-EBITDA ratio in its model where it had previously used 65.

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Netflix Earnings Will Test Waters for Tech Giants After Rout

NFLX

Netflix Earnings Will Test Waters for Tech Giants After Rout. Netflix is one of the first major U.S. companies to report third-quarter results -- and 2018’s best-performing FAANG stock -- making it especially influential in the wake of a drubbing that hit the tech giants hard. Netflix is also looking to redeem itself after missing subscriber estimates in the previous quarter, a whiff that sent the stock on its worst one-day tumble in two years. That’s bound to put pressure on Los Gatos, California-based Netflix, which charges between $8 and $14 a month in the U.S. for its service. For now, Netflix is expected to benefit from a strong slate of new content in the quarter, such as the second season of “Ozark.” That makes it unlikely that subscriber growth will disappoint investors again, Macquarie Bank analyst Tim Nollen said.

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Netflix is banking on India to turn subscriber numbers around

NFLX

Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson says the streaming giant saw a 434% increase year-over-year in mobile app downloads — a measurement he used as a proxy for subscriber growth — from users in the country, which has over 1.3 billion residents. “Netflix app downloads by first-time subscribers doubled vs. last quarter, and in absolute terms, the data suggests India is now contributing more first-time Netflix subscriber gross additions than Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and the U.K. combined.”. Chalk up the huge subscriber growth in India in part to it being a far less saturated market versus the U.S. Piper Jaffray senior research analyst Michael J. Olson estimates that almost 60% of all internet-connected homes in the U.S. already have a Netflix subscription versus less than 15% of households in international markets, excluding China. Netflix also plans on hiring another 30 or so employees in its Mumbai offices, effectively doubling the office’s headcount in areas such as content licensing, production, marketing, legal and finance, Netflix Chief Talent Officer Jennifer Neal told the Times of India earlier this month. While 60 or so employees is a veritable drop in the bucket given Netflix employs over 4,200 people in its Los Gatos and Los Angeles offices, its increased hiring in India indicates the company is taking the market seriously.

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Why Earnings Season Could Be Great for Netflix (NFLX)

NFLX

After all, analysts raising estimates right before earnings — with the most up-to-date information possible — is a pretty good indicator of some favorable trends underneath the surface for NFLX in this report. This suggests that analysts have very recently bumped up their estimates for NFLX, giving the stock a Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.71% heading into earnings season. Our recent 10-year backtest shows that stocks that have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better show a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and have returned over 28% on average in annual returns (see more Top Earnings ESP stocks here). Clearly, recent earnings estimate revisions suggest that good things are ahead for Netflix, and that a beat might be in the cards for the upcoming report.

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